Recently, Senator Mitch McConnell was one of just three Republican Senators to vote against confirming Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, earning McConnell accolades in all sorts of strange places. In the Courier-Journal, Joe Gerth commended Mitch McConnell’s “new spine” and Politico said that his vote showed he still knew how to “wield power.” In reality, McConnell never lacked for spine and definitely never forgot how to wield power – he has a spine of steel which has allowed him to make gambles with his power in ways which very few people in the world have ever been able to.

The history of Mitch McConnell is probably a familiar one to many of our listeners, but for those of you who did not know: he was a mostly moderate Republican Jefferson County Judge-Executive who scored a major upset by defeating an incumbent Democratic Senator in 1984, rose in the ranks of the Senate GOP to become leader of the Senate GOP Caucus in 2006, and was considered one of the most important conservative leaders on the planet for the next fifteen years. He gave up his leadership position last year, but did not leave the Senate, and recently has emerged as potentially one of the Senate votes which may oppose many of the wilder Trump nominations (Robert Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel, etc). The question “how and why did Mitch McConnell go from a moderate to the arch-conservative” has been asked by many people in many places. That question now has a corollary: “has McConnell gone back to his moderate roots now that he is no longer leader?”

While these questions are common, I don’t think they are the correct ones to ask. I honestly believe that McConnell is not guided by ideology, but instead by a desire to grow and wield power. That isn’t a new observation. However unoriginal the thought, though, the ways in which Mitch McConnell has wielded and attempted to wield power give us a much more accurate picture of the person who he is and help to harmonize the actions he took as Senate GOP Leader with the actions he is taking now.

Mitch McConnell loved to wield power just as much as he loved to amass it. And like many other powerful politicians through the years, Mitch McConnell wielded his power by making huge gambles with the power he had amassed. McConnell’s gambles had three potential results. My favorite type of McConnell’s gambles are those which only served to increase the power of Democrats, sometimes in hilarious or surprising ways. The second kind of gamble, which belies his talent and abilities as a politician, are the gambles which were purely successful for him. Most of his gambles probably should go in this group. Finally, and most tragically, there were a few very important gambles which he not only lost, but the entire country suffered.

McConnell’s Successful Gambles

A major early successful gamble for McConnell was his initial campaign for US Senate. It is part of McConnell’s lore that his first campaign was a massive long-shot and the success of his television ads about Dee Huddleston’s absence in Washington shocked nearly everyone and launched his career as a national politician. Another massively successful gamble by McConnell was holding open the Merrick Garland Supreme Court seat, which resulted in a conservative majority which ended up handing down major decisions upending many long standing precedents and enshrining conservative policy preferences into American law.

McConnell’s Losing Gambles

One major losing gamble made by McConnell is local to Louisville, where both McConnell and I live. Back in 2000, McConnell joined then-Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson in supporting the merger of the city of Louisville and Jefferson County. While outwardly supporting each other, McConnell and Abramson made opposite bets about the political future if the city merged with the county. Louisville has always been a Democratic city, and Louisville has always encompassed the majority of Jefferson County. Abramson bet that Democrats would continue their dominance and that he could get elected yet again as “Super-Mayor.” However, back in the 1990s, McConnell led a successful reorganization of the Republican Party in Jefferson County which led to the election of several county-wide positions such as Judge-Executive (the executive leader of the county – both McConnell and then Rebecca Jackson held that office), the County Clerk (held by Rebecca Jackson and later Bobbie Holsclaw, who still holds that office today), and McConnell routinely won Jefferson County in his Senate races. McConnell bet on the ascendent Republican Party of Jefferson County. Abramson won this bet in a big way. Jefferson County shifted hard to the left nearly immediately after the beginning of the Bush administration and Democrats have never relinquished the Mayor’s office or the majority on the Metro Council, and now things like the Fairness Ordinance cover all the citizens of Jefferson County and not just the city of Louisville. No Republican (besides Bobbie Holsclaw) has won Jefferson County in nearly two decades.

Another losing gamble for McConnell occurred in 2003 when McConnell was the named plaintiff in the Supreme Court decision McConnell v. US, a decision which upheld major bans on soft money. McConnell has always been on the side of more money in politics, understanding that the wealthy are always among the most conservative and that Republicans would likely always win big money battles. McConnell’s side lost the case, and the McCain-Feingold Law limiting soft money in politics was the law of the land. (Although it was almost entirely overturned in the Citizens United v. FEC case in 2010.)

McConnell’s Gambles Where Everyone Lost

The worst kind of gamble made by McConnell are those that left the entire country worse off; not just in the eyes of his opponents, but probably in the eyes of McConnell himself. A major example of this kind of gamble was McConnell’s statement in 2010 that his “number one goal” was to make Barack Obama a one-term President. The use of the filibuster skyrocketed, and now we don’t even consider bills as likely to pass without 60 votes in the US Senate – an unprecedented situation. The nation’s legislative branch has been almost entirely paralyzed by division,and major legislation only passes via reconciliation. Republican obstruction, led by McConnell, only managed to increase the anemic approval ratings of President Obama. Barack Obama was ultimately reelected and the impact on Congress was disastrous.

According to McConnell’s biographer, the worst decision of McConnell’s career was a losing gamble on Donald Trump’s enduring popularity. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the capitol, Democrats in the House impeached President Trump for a second time. That impeachment could have resulted in a conviction if Republicans, who at the time largely blamed Donald Trump for the attack on the capitol, had been whipped to vote for it. However, McConnell, who definitely did not want Donald Trump to be the President again, decided that Trump’s career was likely over. McConnell bet that Donald Trump would fade away into history, but that Trump’s base would lead to future Republican success. He was wrong, and the result was Trump’s reelection last November.

McConnell’s Biggest Gamble Of All

While McConnell’s actions since the Trump administration began have been surprising, they probably shouldn’t be. The above examples I’ve cited pale in comparison to one major pyrrhic gamble made by Mitch McConnell that has lasted his entire career. He won that gamble, but all of us are paying the price now.

Mitch McConnell’s political ideology isn’t that hard to understand, although it is constantly held up as this swirling, mysterious, changing thing. McConnell worked for John Sherman Cooper, one of the most liberal Republicans to ever serve in the chamber. He attended the “I have a Dream” speech by Martin Luther King, Jr. He later married a Taiwanese immigrant and was one of just a handful of Republican Senators to support the nomination of Loretta Lynch as Attorney General. McConnell has always been one of Clarence Thomas’ biggest defenders. Locally, he’s supported and mentored several young conservatives of color, including former Attorney General and Gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron. McConnell represents the wing of the Republican party which believes in conservative economic orthodoxy above all else, international cooperation via free trade, a strong and united Western military alliance, and understands that diversity is one of America’s greatest strengths. He is an urbane Republican, the likes of which were not uncommon throughout most of the 20th century. While I believe that to be how McConnell thinks, it’s sometimes hard to believe given the big gamble he made, which has often required McConnell to suppress his true identity.

The gamble of McConnell’s political career was pushing poor conservatives and rural conservatives towards the Republican Party. Between the New Deal and the rise of Mitch McConnell, these constituencies have been among the most Democratic in the country. Poor and rural conservatives do not have a natural home in the American political system: their economic concerns are a very good fit for the Democratic Party, which has always favored more populist economic policies, but their views on race and social issues were certainly a better fit for Republicans. McConnell courted and won these voters in massive numbers, turning the political world upside down and in many ways reversing the partisan coalitions.

(I want to make clear here that “rural conservatives” do not make up all rural folks, and that “poor conservatives” do not make up all poor folks. There are lots of progressive people in rural areas and many liberals who have low incomes.)

Mitch McConnell has attended the Fancy Farm picnic in Western Kentucky nearly every year in his career. Early on, there is a legend that he would walk around saying “I agree with everyone here on just about everything except which party to vote for.” He worked hard to pull these voters into the Republican fold – and was dramatically successful. By convincing these previously Democratic constituencies to vote for Republicans, and indeed by absolutely dominating the Democratic party in rural areas, Mitch McConnell has built a Republican coalition in Kentucky which only Andy Beshear can beat right now, and a Republican coalition in the United States which managed to win states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania on a regular basis.

You have probably seen the picture of Mitch McConnell from the 1980s in front of a massive confederate flag. Personally, I don’t think McConnell cares much for the confederacy or for the folks who continue to idolize it. But, I do believe Mitch McConnell is a person who knew that the sort of person who had a massive confederate flag was an important person to convert to the Republican party in order to build an enduring majority. And personally, I personally think this kind of accommodation of racists might just be as bad as being a racist yourself.

When Democrats spoke to the conservatives in their party, it was typically about finding common ground around economic issues. This contrasts with McConnell, who has nearly nothing in common with the Democratic conservatives he courted. He did not agree with the economic platform which kept them in the Democratic fold, and despite outward appearances, it’s my belief that he never agreed with them on social issues either – and I think McConnell’s actions since the start of the Trump administration are further evidence that he believes this way. McConnell’s push for these voters was deeply pessimistic and craven: pulling in a group who he strongly disagreed with using issues he didn’t believe in, in order to build and wield power for his purposes.

Mitch McConnell’s success has run away from him. Instead of conservatives following *his* lead and the lead of his ideological compatriots, the Republican Party has been subsumed by conservatives who don’t care about budget deficits or the 20th century international order, and instead care about deporting immigrants and supporting international dictators.

Perhaps the only thing the current Republican Party learned from McConnell was how to consolidate and wield power. Now that the Trump faction of the Republican party is in full control of the party, McConnell has to live with the consequences of the system he built.

Mitch McConnell voted against Pete Hegseth because Pete Hegseth is completely unqualified to be the Secretary of Defense. Back when McConnell started his career, it was common for Senators to oppose nominations from their party’s Presidents when they were found to be cronies or unqualified and it wasn’t uncommon for members of the opposition party to support qualified nominees. Now, because of the work of Mitch McConnell, that’s no longer the case. Only two other Republican Senators joined McConnell in opposing Hegseth, and now we have to pray that the Secretary of Defense isn’t drunk when the next international crisis hits. The gambles of Mitch McConnell have reshaped American politics and left us all worse off. No matter how he votes for the rest of his time in the Senate, that is his legacy.