In the wake of every election, a massive wave of scrutiny follows. Many analyses, up to and especially including the 2024 election, are focused on micro-issues – where candidates decided to hold rallies, what message candidates emphasized, where door-knockers and phone-callers were deployed, etc. This is all very important. As someone who takes part in campaigns, I have read many of these analyses closely in order to form my own thoughts about what happened.
I cannot add anything to the discussions about those mico-reasons, because, as I have said before, Presidential campaigns just kind of happen here in Kentucky – we don’t really do anything to participate. One thing that I do believe I can add to the discussion, however, is an analysis with a broader scope, taking into account how, in the words of Mark Twain, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” The following are three stories about eight men and one woman who all experienced a very similar situation.
ACT I: A Charismatic Democrat Is Elected, A Pragmatic VP Is Selected
Part I: 1940
Inauspiciously, I start with a caveat: Franklin Roosevelt was originally elected in 1932, but I consider his Presidency in two parts – the first 2 terms, and 1940 until his death. In 1940, Roosevelt was elected to an unprecedented (and never again seen) third term to the Presidency. While 1940 marked the return of some semblance of a Republican coalition, Roosevelt was extremely popular and won election with more than 400 electoral votes and won the popular vote by about 10%.
By 1944, many Democratic leaders knew that President Roosevelt was in bad health, and many in the conservative wing of the party were wary of the leftist Vice President Henry Wallace. The conservative Democrats compromised with President Roosevelt to elevate Harry S Truman to the Vice Presidency. Very few knew what to expect from Truman: he was from a poor family and was not well educated, but had an extremely good record as a local government administrator (where he helped push forward a new series of public works in Kansas City) and US Senator (where his “Truman Committee” helped root out waste and fraud in military contracts). Conservatives felt hopeful that since he came from a slave state, he would not advance the liberal Democrats civil rights agenda.
Part I: 1960
The process of political parties selecting their candidates is one of the most dynamic parts of American elections – it’s changed and evolved more freely than probably any other part of our process. In 1960, the country had not yet arrived at the point where primary elections in states would officially select the nominees, but the time in which the “smoke filled rooms” dominated the process had been left behind. John Fitzgerald Kennedy, his brother, and his father understood the process and manipulated it masterfully – tactically entering and then winning the West Virginia primary (then a safely Democratic state with an almost non-existent Catholic population) and the Wisconsin primary (the state abutting Minnesota, the home state of his major rival Hubert H. Humphrey). All the while, Kennedy’s family was able to win the support of a significant number of delegates before Lyndon Johnson and Adlai Stevenson even launched their campaigns. This tactical beatdown, in addition to the extreme charisma of John Kennedy and strong support from the liberal wing of the party, led to a shocking first ballot victory for Kennedy at the convention in Los Angeles. Kennedy went on to win a very close race against Richard Nixon in the first election to see a televised debate and one of the first times television advertising was used in a campaign.
The selection of Lyndon Johnson as John Kennedy’s running mate has been closely studied and reported upon. Regardless, there are several diverging stories regarding how Johnson, considered one of Kennedy’s fiercest rivals and in many ways his polar opposite, was picked. At the end of the day, Johnson’s selection worked out well for Kennedy: he signaled to the South that their part in the Democratic coalition was secured, Kennedy won Johnson’s home state of Texas, and Johnson (who at the time was the Democratic Leader and “Master of the Senate”) provided a veneer of expertise to a candidate who many believed was too inexperienced.
Part I: 2008
Since 1976 when the current primary system came into place, there have been nine “open” Democratic primaries where the nomination was closely contested. In my opinion, 2008 is the most dramatic and interesting of those races. Barack Obama emerged with the nomination, dispatching the heavily favored Hillary Clinton with superior organizing tactics, a message that resonated more strongly than many anticipated, and a level of support from cultural elites that no political candidate has been able to muster before or since. Barack Obama’s charisma was compared to John Kennedy’s many times throughout this campaign for good reason. While the general election had many moments of drama itself (the selection of Sarah Palin and the beginning of the financial crisis, for example) the result was an expected landslide for the Democratic party.
I remember being asked to sign up to receive texts from the Barack Obama campaign in order to know FIRST who the Vice Presidential selection would be. When Joe Biden was revealed as the pick, I was pretty disappointed. I had wanted a complementary progressive to signal a different direction for the Democratic Party, but, just as in 1944 and in 1960, a pragmatic US Senator who placated the scions of the party got the nod.
ACT II: A Popular Administration Ends With Cracks Emerging
Part I
Domestically, the end of the second Roosevelt term was a bit of a disaster. While FDR is mostly remembered for a massive expansion in the federal budget, there was a period right before 1940 when the Roosevelt administration worked hard to balance the budget. The result of this was a significant recession. World War II mostly brought the country out of that recession. World War II was a thorny issue throughout most of the 1940 election, but the attack on Pearl Harbor mostly ended debate about the United States’ neutrality, and most of the third and fourth terms of Roosevelt’s administration were defined by the war. Roosevelt remained extremely popular as a leader throughout the war, with an approval rating that touched 84% at one point. Despite the President’s popularity and despite victory in Europe in 1945, at the time of Roosevelt’s death, the war in Asia was becoming increasingly bloody and intractable.
Part II
John Fitzgerald Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963. His administration
until then had been very popular – starting with an approval rating in the 70% range and only briefly dipping below 60%. While Kennedy ran his campaign on a commitment to a stronger social safety net, he had trouble getting anything started in Congress. His plans for free healthcare for the elderly, a department of Urban Affairs, and a civil rights act did not get off the ground. Kennedy’s foreign policy also was a bit of a disaster: was marked by the Cuban Missile Crisis and ratcheting up American involvement in Vietnam, including approving the use of Agent Orange and deployment of 16,000 “military advisors” to the region. JFK is remembered as an extremely popular President – because he was. However, many of the deepest seated issues that marked the 1960s as a tumultuous era had their roots in the Kennedy administration’s hubris and failure to govern.
Part III
Barack Obama served two full terms as President. He began and ended his term with an approval rating around 60% (although through the middle he dipped as low as 40%). Despite a massive 60 vote majority in the US Senate during parts of his first term, the only major domestic policy delivered by the Obama administration was the Affordable Care Act, which improved access to the health insurance system for millions of Americans. Obama’s campaign pledge to pass legislation about climate change never came to fruition in either term. Barack Obama brought the war in Iraq to a close, but the war in Afghanistan continued to fester, and the situation in the middle east deteriorated in many ways during the Obama administration, including the use of chemical weapons by Syria, the emergence of ISIS, and a major push into the West Bank by Israeli settlers. The use of drones as killer weapons was expanded significantly during the Obama administration, losing the President significant support among the left of his party. Barack Obama’s administration is remembered fondly by liberals, but it was not without significant foibles, especially in saddling future administrations with festering issues in Asia and leaving key domestic promises untouched.
ACT III: The Vice President Becomes President, Wins Their Own Term and Delivers
Part I
Harry Truman did not appear immediately equipped to be the President, especially during World War II. He is the last US President to never have earned a college degree, and his upbringing was extremely humble (his grandparents left Shelby County, KY to seek a better life in Missouri). While Truman hoped to hold onto most of Roosevelt’s cabinet, many of them abandoned him because they were not impressed by his leadership. The world, however, was impressed that he was able to hold his own with the giants Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin. The war in Asia continued with little progress, and the decision to drop nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki fell upon Harry Truman’s humble shoulders, and history has never stopped judging that decision. Regardless, those strikes finally ended the long war.
The post-war economy was not good, and after significant losses in the midterm elections of 1946, the consensus was that Thomas Dewey would become the first Republican President elected in 22 years when the 1948 election was finished. Truman campaigned doggedly in a negative style, attacking Republicans as out of touch elites – he, a farmer’s son, drew a sharp contrast to the dapper Thomas E. Dewey, the son of a newspaper publisher. Dewey, thinking he had more to lose than gain by doing much campaigning, mostly stayed silent. Truman shocked the establishment by winning a term in his own right in 1948. However, despite a successful foreign policy agenda prior to Truman’s election, wars both hot and cold would mar the one term which Truman was elected to.
Part II
Lyndon Johnson’s elevation to President was shocking. A seemingly conservative foil to Kennedy’s liberal reputation, he appeared to threaten the promised agenda of the man with whom he was elected – in much the same way that Andrew Johnson had done after being elevated after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. Indeed, Kennedy’s cabinet basically abandoned Johnson, thinking him a backwards thinking and uneducated conservative (Johnson was trained as a high school teacher and spent time teaching in mostly Spanish speaking border towns). However, Johnson completely defied expectations by delivering on nearly every one of Kennedy’s major domestic agenda items: he pushed through Medicare and Medicaid, established a cabinet level Department of Housing and Urban Development, and provided leadership in the passage of the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act.
Lyndon Johnson won 90% of the electoral college and won by more than 20% in the 1968 election, the only term he won on his own. There exist myriad reasons for this landslide, but the massive popularity of the Great Society programs are high on the list. However, immediately after his election, cracks began to emerge which would shape the liberal/conservative divide as we understand it today.
Part III
The Obama era ended with a whimper for the Democratic Party – despite his own popularity, the country elected Donald Trump as President in 2016, one of the most shocking results in the history of the country. The first Trump term was marked by chaotic government, two impeachments, a riot at the Capitol, and lots and lots of tweets. Democrats were desperate to defeat him in 2020, and the primary election turned out every kind of Democrat imaginable. After an initial period where Joe Biden seemed like the favorite, he slipped significantly while various other Democrats took turns in the spotlight (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, etc). However, after none of the contenders broke away from the pack and it seemed like Bernie Sanders would become the nominee by default (as the consensus pick of the left wing), all the moderate candidates coalesced behind Joe Biden, delivering him the nomination. The general election was extremely fraught, taking place in the midst of a pandemic with an increasingly unhinged President at the helm of the government, but Joe Biden managed to win a term in his own right, with surprisingly little help from Barack Obama, in 2020.
President Biden managed to navigate narrow majorities in Congress in order to deliver on major priorities the Obama administration left unfinished, especially around infrastructure and climate change. Using the reconciliation progress in Congress, two major bills passed during the Biden administration’s first two years which spent significantly on major COVID recovery checks, transportation projects, and the largest investment in climate change abatement in American history. In addition to those priorities, the Biden administration provided leadership which led to the passage of major legislation on infrastructure and improving the semiconductor industry. Despite major domestic policy achievements, cracks began due to stubborn inflation and the administration’s response to wars conducted by Israel.
ACT IV: The President Bows Out
Part I
Truman’s term was marked by the start of the cold war: the birth of the CIA and NATO, a significant rise in the power of J. Edgar Hoover, the Berlin Airlift, the Marshall Plan, and especially the Korean War. The War in Korea was the first conflict where a fully nuclear state made war against another state, and many did not know what to expect. Douglas MacArthur, a general beloved by many military hawks, nearly managed to execute a launch of multiple nuclear strikes in Asia. However, he was (contentiously) removed by Truman from command. The situation in Korea never resolved: it is still not resolved. In addition, conflicts in Vietnam, Formosa (Taiwan), and East Germany continued to fester. These conflicts, in addition to increasing anxiety about communism in the United States, led to deteriorating popularity for Truman.
Truman was widely expected to stand for reelection in 1952. However, due to a disapproval rating above 60% and a loss to Estes Kefauver in the New Hampshire primary, Truman decided not to run. He retired from the Presidency but remained a bulwark of the Democratic Party until his death in 1972.
Part II
The American ground war in Vietnam began just two months after Lyndon Johnson’s term began in 1965. The situation in Vietnam had been a major concern of American foreign policy since the start of the cold war, but the Gulf of Tonkin incident provided the spark needed to ignite the Congress to allow President Johnson to deploy troops. While the initial push into Vietnam was widely popular, the war went extremely poorly, thousands of Americans died, and Lyndon Johnson had an approval rating in the 30% range heading into 1968. In addition, the situation in American cities deteriorated significantly, with massive demonstrations which in some cases deteriorated into riots occurring in Los Angeles, Detroit, Newark, Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, and many others. During Johnson’s term, Malcolm X and Martin Luther King, Jr. were both assassinated.
Lyndon Johnson was a strong enough figure to prevent most Democratic challengers from launching campaigns, but anti-war Senator Eugene McCarthy stood against him in the New Hampshire primary. While Johnson won the primary, the result was shockingly close (49%-42%), prompting Johnson to step out of the race in a dramatic speech.
Part III
Despite significant achievements in Congress, most of Joe Biden’s domestic agenda will not be implemented for several years. Meanwhile, inflation continued to eat away at Americans paychecks, and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the country’s labor markets. Joe Biden was the oldest person ever inaugurated as President, and initially said he would be a “transitional figure.” However, he surprisingly announced that he would run for reelection after a better-than-expected midterm election in 2022. Joe Biden bombed the first Presidential debate of the 2024 election – he struggled to complete thoughts and didn’t seem to be able to control his expression. Many Americans had been concerned about Biden’s age, and the debate seemed to confirm every worst suspicion.
After weeks of pressure from the Democratic Party’s elites, Joe Biden decided to call off his Presidential campaign despite facing no opposition in the primary. It was a completely unprecedented move which changed the campaign in every way imaginable.
ACT V: The Democratic Party Loses
Part I
The 1952 election was held between Adlai Stevenson and Dwight Eisenhower. The main issues for Republicans were Korea and the communist threat. Many Republican surrogates intimated that Stevenson was a communist, and that Truman had bungled the Korean war. Democrats attempted to refocus on the New Deal achievements of the Roosevelt administration, and spent most of their time warning that electing Republicans would lead back to the laissez faire era of the Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover administrations. However, the race was probably decided when Dwight Eisenhower decided to run for President as a Republican (he had been courted by both parties as a candidate). The enormous popularity of Eisenhower, the General most associated with victory in World War II, led to Republicans returning to the White House for the first time since 1930.
Part II
The 1968 election was one of the most contentious of the 20th century. A deeply divided Democratic Party met against the backdrop of the war in Vietnam and after a horrible convention, selected Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey as its nominee. Republicans coalesced around Richard Nixon, who had lost the Presidency in 1960, but had reinvented himself as a significantly more conservative figure during his subsequent run for Governor of California and during congressional and state level elections after that. Nixon campaigned on “law and order,” a more aggressive approach to the war in Vietnam, and intimated support for a rollback of the civil rights advances during the Johnson administration. Humphrey was saddled with the Vietnam war, and also with the decimation of the “solid south,” which the Democratic Party had depended upon for a century, after the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Act. While Nixon only won the popular vote by half a percentage point, the Republican won 301 electoral votes.
Part III
We’ve just wrapped up the 2024 election. While much has already been written about how and why President Trump was able to win back the White House, it is clear to me that history’s echoes are present in the result. Democrats were swept into office sixteen years ago on a tidal wave of optimism, but that wave has now completely receded. For Democratic partisans, it is unthinkable that anyone could vote for Trump or the Republicans – but of course that is how Democrats felt in the 60s when Nixon ascended back to Washington, and how Democrats felt in the 1950s when Dwight Eisenhower chose to run as a Republican. It is always worth understanding if the right doors were knocked or if the correct message was shown in advertisements, but larger and more permanent themes are always present around us. The good news is that politics in America is full of twists and turns. When your party is down, it is never out. Things change – good eras and bad eras are never forever, and it is the work of all citizens to continue the efforts to improve the country no matter who our fellow citizens choose as the leader.
Further Reading
Part I
The Path to Power (The Years of Lyndon Johnson #1) – Robert Caro
Part II
The Making of the President: 1960 – Theodore H. White
If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future – Jill Lepore
The Years of Lyndon Johnson – Robert Caro
Part III
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